There have been, for most of the past six months, two kinds of Americans: one group that was confident that President Trump was going to make their lives better, and one group that never believed that. Very few people started in one group and then shifted to the other.
But a crack has formed among the Trump faithful, which threatens to erode his approval ratings if it widens. It appears the wedge creating it is health care — specifically, a fear among some Trump supporters that the Senate bill to repeal and replace Obamacare will end up hurting them personally.
Support for the health care bill tracks closely with approval for Trump and faith that his policies will improve the US economy, Vox/SurveyMonkey polling shows. It is not a complete overlap, however: About one in seven Trump supporters now fear that the Senate health care bill will make them worse off.
Those supporters are the most vulnerable part of Trump’s coalition. They have lost faith in Trump’s promise that he would replace Obamacare with something “much better,” and they have less faith in the rest of his presidency too. Compared with their fellow Trump backers, they are more economically anxious, less confident in Trump’s economic policies, and more concerned about the Russia scandal and the administration’s possible ethical violations.
The polling numbers do not, on their own, show a causal relationship between Trump’s personal approval and the sinking ratings for the Senate health bill — only 15 percent of this month’s poll respondents said would make them better off, down from 21 percent last month. But the drop was most pronounced among respondents who are on Medicaid or purchase health insurance on the individual market — areas that would be affected by the Senate bill. (Overall, only 16 percent of Americans want to see Medicaid cut, as the bill would; 45 percent want to see it expanded.)
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